Robert Shiller As Cassandra Redux

Filed in archive Housing on June 24, 2005

I've kept quiet on housing of late because, frankly, I got tired beating that drum. How much anecdotal evidence of a mania can one really stomach without becoming tone deaf? But I'm ready to dig in again.

From the guy who brought us Irrational Exuberance (released a week before Nasdaq's peak) comes an updated edition of the same title that includes extensive coverage of the real estate market.

In this Barron's article (link is to a PDF) Shiller walks through his version of the real estate market over the next decade. If you're squeezing into a McMansion with an I/O mortgage financing 100+% of the purchase price you may want to look away 'cause it ain't perty. Whether Shiller is preaching to the choir, or you just want to laugh at those darn bears, the article is worth a read.

Does the guy want to sell a few books? Sure, but I don't think that's why he's advancing this line of thinking. And remember, they all thought Cassandra was lying too.