Don't Bet Against Bill Miller
Filed in archive Investing by Justin McHenry on July 14, 2006

, Miller's run of dominance may be over--the Braves are 13 out, Miller's about 9 back of the S&P.Before I go further, I should disclose that my wife has a big part of her (our) retirement savings in the Value Trust fund. That said, now's the time for you to be buying in. I'm not going to bet against Bill Miller (or the Atlanta Braves for that matter--mark my words they're at least the NL wildcard come playoff time).
Look, Bill Miller didn't suddenly get stupid. He's been beating the S&P for 15 years. I don't know if the streak will hold, but he's not going to lag this far back forever. He's got a lot of stocks that have taken a beating in the Value Trust portfolio, but should Amazon really be down 27%, or Yahoo 15%? This stuff is going to come roaring back at some point, and the newest investors to Miller's funds are going to get the biggest bump in the short term, and of course his track record suggests you'll do well into the future, too.
(Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, etc., I'm no investment advisor, etc. and so forth.)
Miller's biggest obstacle may be that the Value Trust has grown so large that he can't buy or sell huge positions anymore without a significant impact on a stock's price, so the great deal he sees may not be so great once he starts buying it and makes the price go up!
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