Are Past Lottery Numbers Predictive of the Future?

Filed in archive General on December 6, 2006

I've always been fascinated by the lottery. When I was finally of age to play the lottery, I did many times even though I knew of the ridiculously long odds. If I missed a drawing, I fretted and hoped my numbers wouldn't come up that particular day, thus increasing their chances of them coming up during the next drawing, which I would NOT be missing.

But do past lottery numbers have any predictive value on future lottery numbers? Are the numbers that have been picked a lot in the recent past more likely to be picked again, or are they due for a lull while the recent laggards make a comeback? A mathematician would probably tell us that over the long run, every number would be pulled the same number of times, thus making it more likely that choosing the numbers with the worst track record would actually increase your odds in the future.

(Actually a mathematician would probably tell you that all the past data in the world does not change the odds of which numbers will come up in the next drawing. This is why mathematicians are no fun.)

So I've decided to do some testing. I just looked back over the last 52 drawings of the Mega Millions game and tabulated which numbers were most often winners and which were most often losers. Using my past data, I am going to make two predictions on winning numbers for the next jackpot---one prediction will be made using the past winners, one using the past losers. Over time we can see which theory holds more water. The next drawing is Friday night.

So, here are the predictions.

Using the recent winners theory, Friday's numbers will be 5, 14, 24, 25 and 42, with a Mega Ball of #13. (All of these numbers were picked at least 9 times in the last 52 drawings, with #13 being picked a whopping 12 times.)

Using the recent losers theory, the predicted numbers are: 3, 11, 19, 31, 49 and a Mega Ball of #8.

I am fudging a little, which is a bad thing in mathematics but just fine in blogging.

First, there are technically two drawings to come up with the final numbers. Five numbers between 1 and 56 are chosen. Then one number between 1 and 46 is chosen. So it's not like 6 balls are being taken out of the same hopper and one is declared the Mega Ball. No, the Mega Ball has its own drawing, too, which no doubt complicates the equations.

I am ignoring this problem.

Second, in picking the 6 numbers with the least recent success, there were 5 numbers that had only been picked 3 times in the last 52 drawings, but then another 11 that had been picked 4 times. Which of those 11 becomes my sixth number? I've already forgotten how I chose, but you can be certain it wouldn't pass scientific muster.

So, using my quasi-math, I have the numbers ready for our first go-round. I will report back Monday on the results.

(By the way, this is only for fun; I won't be putting any money up. Which means one of these weeks I'll probably get all six right. So maybe I should put money on them! Should I put money on them??? Argh!!! The compulsive gambler that lurks right under the surface is itching to be free! But I won't let it. No money will be wagered on these, at least not by me.)